Shifted discharge and drier soils: Hydrological projections for a Central Asian 
catchment

Schaffhauser, Timo; Lange, Stefan; Tuo, Ye; Disse, Markus

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101338

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

Shifted discharge and drier soils: Hydrological projections for a Central Asian catchment

Authors

Schaffhauser, Timo
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/slange

Lange, Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Tuo, Ye
External Organizations;

Disse, Markus
External Organizations;

External Ressource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (public)

1-s2.0-S2214581823000253-main.pdf
(Publisher version), 6MB

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Schaffhauser, T., Lange, S., Tuo, Y., Disse, M. (2023): Shifted discharge and drier soils: Hydrological projections for a Central Asian catchment. - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 46, 101338.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101338

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28198

Abstract

Study Region: The Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan. - Study Focus: We investigate the impacts of climate change in the basin based on two families of General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the hydrological model SWAT. The forcing datasets are the widely used ISIMIP2 (I2) and the newly derived ISIMIP3 (I3) data which refer to the 5th and 6th stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Due to notable differences in the forcing we evaluate their impacts on various hydrological components of the basin, such as discharge, evapotranspiration (ETA) and soil moisture (SM). Besides, a partial correlation (PC) analysis is used to assess the meteorological controls of the basin with special emphasize on the SM-ETA coupling. - New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Agreement in the basin’s projections is found, such as discharge shifts towards an earlier peak flow of one month, significant SM reductions and ETA increases. I3 temperature projections exceed their previous estimates and show an increase in precipitation, which differs from I2. However, the mitigating effects do not lead to an improvement in the region’s susceptibility to soil moisture deficits. The PC study reveals enhanced water-limited conditions expressed as positive SM-ETA feedback under I2 and I3, albeit slightly weaker under I3.