Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and 
biodiversity protection

von Jeetze, Patrick José; Weindl, Isabelle; Johnson, Justin Andrew; Borrelli, Pasquale; Panagos, Panos; Molina Bacca, Edna J.; Karstens, Kristine; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Minoli, Sara; Müller, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1

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Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection

Authors

/persons/resource/vjeetze

von Jeetze, Patrick José
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl, Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Johnson, Justin Andrew
External Organizations;

Borrelli, Pasquale
External Organizations;

Panagos, Panos
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/MolinaBacca

Molina Bacca, Edna J.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Karstens

Karstens, Kristine
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sara.minoli

Minoli, Sara
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7804740
(Supplementary material)

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s41467-023-38043-1.pdf
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Citation

von Jeetze, P. J., Weindl, I., Johnson, J. A., Borrelli, P., Panagos, P., Molina Bacca, E. J., Karstens, K., Humpenöder, F., Dietrich, J. P., Minoli, S., Müller, C., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2023): Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection. - Nature Communications, 14, 2515.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28627

Abstract

Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.