Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

Merfort, Leon; Bauer, Nicolas; Humpenöder, Florian; Klein, David; Strefler, Jessica; Popp, Alexander; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2

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Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

Authors

/persons/resource/leon.merfort

Merfort, Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/david.klein

Klein, David
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7799031
(Supplementary material)

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Citation

Merfort, L., Bauer, N., Humpenöder, F., Klein, D., Strefler, J., Popp, A., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E. (2023): Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies. - Nature Climate Change, 13, 685-692.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28637

Abstract

Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ−1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.