Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

Muis, Sanne; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Á. Antolínez, José A.; Dullaart, Job C.; Duong, Trang Minh; Erikson, Li; Haarsma, Rein J.; Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui; Mengel, Matthias; Le Bars, Dewi; O’Neill, Andrea; Ranasinghe, Roshanka; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Verlaan, Martin; Ward, Philip J.; Yan, Kun

doi:10.1029/2023EF003479

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Add to Basket

Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released

Journal Article

Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

Authors

Muis, Sanne
External Organizations;

Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
External Organizations;

Á. Antolínez, José A.
External Organizations;

Dullaart, Job C.
External Organizations;

Duong, Trang Minh
External Organizations;

Erikson, Li
External Organizations;

Haarsma, Rein J.
External Organizations;

Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Le Bars, Dewi
External Organizations;

O’Neill, Andrea
External Organizations;

Ranasinghe, Roshanka
External Organizations;

Roberts, Malcolm J.
External Organizations;

Verlaan, Martin
External Organizations;

Ward, Philip J.
External Organizations;

Yan, Kun
External Organizations;

External Ressource

No external resources are shared

Fulltext (public)

Earth s Future - 2023 - Muis.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Muis, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Á. Antolínez, J. A., Dullaart, J. C., Duong, T. M., Erikson, L., Haarsma, R. J., Apecechea, M. I., Mengel, M., Le Bars, D., O’Neill, A., Ranasinghe, R., Roberts, M. J., Verlaan, M., Ward, P. J., Yan, K. (2023): Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High‐Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models. - Earth's Future, 11, 9, e2023EF003479.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28737

Abstract

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.