Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote 
events

van den Hurk, Bart J.J.M.; Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera; Boere, Esther; Ciullo, Alessio; Coulter, Liese; Dessai, Suraje; Ercin, Ertug; Goulart, Henrique M.D.; Hamed, Raed; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Koks, Elco; Kubiczek, Patryk; Levermann, Anders; Mechler, Reinhard; van Meersbergen, Maarten; Mester, Benedikt; Middelanis, Robin; Minderhoud, Katie; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Nirandjan, Sadhana; van den Oord, Gijs; Otto, Christian; Sayers, Paul; Schewe, Jacob; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Sillmann, Jana; Stuparu, Dana; Vogt, Thomas; Witpas, Katrien

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500

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Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

Authors

van den Hurk, Bart J.J.M.
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Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera
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Boere, Esther
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Ciullo, Alessio
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Coulter, Liese
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Dessai, Suraje
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Ercin, Ertug
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Goulart, Henrique M.D.
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Hamed, Raed
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Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan
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Koks, Elco
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/persons/resource/patryk.kubiczek

Kubiczek, Patryk
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Levermann

Levermann, Anders
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mechler, Reinhard
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van Meersbergen, Maarten
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/persons/resource/Benedikt.Mester

Mester, Benedikt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robin.Middelanis

Middelanis, Robin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Minderhoud, Katie
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Mysiak, Jaroslav
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Nirandjan, Sadhana
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van den Oord, Gijs
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/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto, Christian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Sayers, Paul
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/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Shepherd, Theodore G.
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Sillmann, Jana
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Stuparu, Dana
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/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt, Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Witpas, Katrien
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Citation

van den Hurk, B. J., Pacchetti, M. B., Boere, E., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Ercin, E., Goulart, H. M., Hamed, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Koks, E., Kubiczek, P., Levermann, A., Mechler, R., van Meersbergen, M., Mester, B., Middelanis, R., Minderhoud, K., Mysiak, J., Nirandjan, S., van den Oord, G., Otto, C., Sayers, P., Schewe, J., Shepherd, T. G., Sillmann, J., Stuparu, D., Vogt, T., Witpas, K. (2023): Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. - Climate Risk Management, 40, 100500.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_28844

Abstract

Modelling complex interactions involving climatic features, socio-economic vulnerability or responses, and long impact transmissions is associated with substantial uncertainty. Physical climate storylines are proposed as an approach to explore complex impact transmission pathways and possible alternative unfoldings of event cascades under future climate conditions. These storylines are particularly useful for climate risk assessment for complex domains, including event cascades crossing multiple disciplinary or geographical borders. For an effective role in climate risks assessments, development guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses.

This paper elaborates on the suitability of physical climate storyline approaches involving climate event induced shocks propagating into societal impacts. It proposes a set of common elements to construct the event storylines. In addition, criteria for their application for climate risk assessment are given, referring to the need for storylines to be physically plausible, relevant for the specific context, and risk-informative.

Apart from an illustrative gallery of storyline examples found in literature, three examples of varying scope and complexity are presented in detail, all involving the potential impact on European socio-economic sectors induced by remote climate change features occurring far outside the geographical domain of the European mainland. The storyline examples illustrate the application of the proposed storyline components and evaluate the suitability of the criteria defined in this paper. It thereby contributes to a rigorous design and application of event-based climate storyline approaches.