Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Dekker, Mark M.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Rodrigues, Renato; de Boer, Harmen-Sytze; Dalla Longa, Francesco; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Fattahi, Amir; Fotio, Theofano; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Fricko, Oliver; Gusheva, Ema; Harmsen, Mathijs; Huppmann, Daniel; Kannavou, Maria; Krey, Volker; Lombardi, Francesco; Luderer, Gunnar; Pfenninger, Stefan; Tsiropoulos, Ioannis; Zakeri, Behnam; van der Zwaan, Bob; Usher, Will; van Vuuren, Detlef

doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01399-1

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学術論文

Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Authors

Dekker, Mark M.
External Organizations;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker, Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Rodrigues, Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

de Boer, Harmen-Sytze
External Organizations;

Dalla Longa, Francesco
External Organizations;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Fattahi, Amir
External Organizations;

Fotio, Theofano
External Organizations;

Fragkos, Panagiotis
External Organizations;

Fricko, Oliver
External Organizations;

Gusheva, Ema
External Organizations;

Harmsen, Mathijs
External Organizations;

Huppmann, Daniel
External Organizations;

Kannavou, Maria
External Organizations;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

Lombardi, Francesco
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Pfenninger, Stefan
External Organizations;

Tsiropoulos, Ioannis
External Organizations;

Zakeri, Behnam
External Organizations;

van der Zwaan, Bob
External Organizations;

Usher, Will
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

URL

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8220166
(付録資料)

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29163oa.pdf
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引用

Dekker, M. M., Daioglou, V., Pietzcker, R. C., Rodrigues, R., de Boer, H.-S., Dalla Longa, F., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Fattahi, A., Fotio, T., Fragkos, P., Fricko, O., Gusheva, E., Harmsen, M., Huppmann, D., Kannavou, M., Krey, V., Lombardi, F., Luderer, G., Pfenninger, S., Tsiropoulos, I., Zakeri, B., van der Zwaan, B., Usher, W., & van Vuuren, D. (2023). Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios. Nature Energy, 8, 1395-1404. doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01399-1.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29163

要旨

Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies.