Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8

アイテム詳細

登録内容を編集ファイル形式で保存

一時保存へ追加

タグ情報を表示リリース履歴を表示詳細要約

公開

学術論文

Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier

Authors

/persons/resource/Josef.Ludescher

Ludescher, Josef
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bunde, Armin
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/emdir

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

URL

There are no locators available

フルテキスト (公開)

29183oa.pdf
(出版社版), 3MB

付随資料 (公開)

There is no public supplementary material available

引用

Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2023). Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6:. doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29183

要旨

El Niño events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Niño (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the difference of the sea surface temperature anomalies between the equatorial western and central Pacific in December enables an early forecast of the type of an upcoming El Niño (p-value < 10−3). Combined with a previously introduced climate network-based approach that allows to forecast the onset of an El Niño event, both the onset and type of an upcoming El Niño can be efficiently forecasted. The lead time is about 1 year and should allow early mitigation measures. In December 2022, the combined approach forecasted the onset of an EP event in 2023.