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Journal Article

Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information

Authors

Gambhir,  Ajay
External Organizations;

Mittal,  Shivika
External Organizations;

Lamboll,  Robin D.
External Organizations;

Grant,  Neil
External Organizations;

Bernie,  Dan
External Organizations;

Gohar,  Laila
External Organizations;

Hawkes,  Adam
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/alexandre.koberle

Köberle,  Alexandre
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Lowe,  Jason A.
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8118060
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

s41467-023-40673-4.pdf
(Publisher version), 2MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Gambhir, A., Mittal, S., Lamboll, R. D., Grant, N., Bernie, D., Gohar, L., Hawkes, A., Köberle, A., Rogelj, J., Lowe, J. A. (2023): Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information. - Nature Communications, 14, 5117.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40673-4


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29339
Abstract
Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.