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Journal Article

Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels

Authors

Liu, Li-Jing
External Organizations;

Jiang, Hong-Dian
External Organizations;

Liang, Qiao-Mei
External Organizations;

Creutzig, Felix
External Organizations;

Liao, Hua
External Organizations;

Yao, Yun-Fei
External Organizations;

Qian, Xiang-Yan
External Organizations;

Ren, Zhong-Yuan
External Organizations;

Qing, Jing
External Organizations;

Cai, Qi-Ran
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ottmar.Edenhofer

Edenhofer, Ottmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wei, Yi-Ming
External Organizations;

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Citation

Liu, L.-J., Jiang, H.-D., Liang, Q.-M., Creutzig, F., Liao, H., Yao, Y.-F., Qian, X.-Y., Ren, Z.-Y., Qing, J., Cai, Q.-R., Edenhofer, O., Wei, Y.-M. (2023): Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels. - Nature Climate Change, 13, 290-296.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01606-7

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and over 5% increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% (US $486 billion) for the EU and about 5% (US $149 billion) for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, and ease GDP losses; however, the world would continue to suffer economic damage (US $655 billion).