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Journal Article

Coal transitions – Part 2: Phase-out dynamics in global long-term mitigation scenarios

Authors

Minx,  Jan C.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/mhansen

Müller-Hansen,  Finn
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nemet,  Gregory
External Organizations;

Diluiso,  Francesca
External Organizations;

Andrew,  Robbie
External Organizations;

Ayas,  Ceren
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer,  Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stephen.Bi

Bi,  Stephen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Clarke,  Leon
External Organizations;

Creutzig,  Felix
External Organizations;

Cui,  Ryna
External Organizations;

Jotzo,  Frank
External Organizations;

Kalkuhl,  Matthias
External Organizations;

Lamb,  William F.
External Organizations;

Löschel,  Andreas
External Organizations;

Manych,  Niccolo
External Organizations;

Meinshausen,  Malte
External Organizations;

Oei,  Pao-Yu
External Organizations;

Peters,  Glen
External Organizations;

Sovacool,  Benjamin
External Organizations;

Steckel,  Jan C.
External Organizations;

Thomas,  Sebastian
External Organizations;

Workman,  Annabelle
External Organizations;

Wiseman,  John
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

29539oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 4MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Minx, J. C., Hilaire, J., Müller-Hansen, F., Nemet, G., Diluiso, F., Andrew, R., Ayas, C., Bauer, N., Bi, S., Clarke, L., Creutzig, F., Cui, R., Jotzo, F., Kalkuhl, M., Lamb, W. F., Löschel, A., Manych, N., Meinshausen, M., Oei, P.-Y., Peters, G., Sovacool, B., Steckel, J. C., Thomas, S., Workman, A., Wiseman, J. (2023): Coal transitions – Part 2: Phase-out dynamics in global long-term mitigation scenarios. - Environmental Research Letters, 19, 033002.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad24cd


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_29539
Abstract
A rapid phase-out of unabated coal use is essential to limit global warming to below 2°C. This review presents a comprehensive assessment of coal transitions in mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement, using data from more than 1500 publicly available scenarios generated by more than 30 integrated assessment models. Our ensemble analysis uses clustering techniques to categorize coal transition pathways in models and bridges evidence on technological learning and innovation with historical data of energy systems. Six key findings emerge: First, we identify three archetypal coal transitions within Paris-consistent mitigation pathways. About 38% of scenarios are ‘coal phase out’ trajectories and rapidly reduce coal consumption to near zero. ‘Coal persistence’ pathways (42%) reduce coal consumption much more gradually and incompletely. The remaining 20% follow ‘coal resurgence’ pathways, characterised by increased coal consumption in the second half of the century.. Second, coal persistence and resurgence archetypes rely on the widespread availability and rapid scale-up of carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Third, coal-transition archetypes spread across all levels of climate policy ambition and scenario cycles, reflecting their dependence on model structures and assumptions. Fourth, most baseline scenarios – including the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) - show much higher coal dependency compared to historical observations over the last 60 years. Fifth, coal-transition scenarios consistently incorporate very optimistic assumptions about the cost and scalability of CCS technologies, while being pessimistic about the cost and scalability of renewable energy technologies. Sixth, evaluation against coal-dependent baseline scenarios suggests that many mitigation scenarios overestimate the technical difficulty and costs of coal phase- outs. To improve future research, we recommend using up-to-date cost data and evidence about innovation and diffusion dynamics of different groups of zero or low-carbon technologies. Revised SSP quantifications need to incorporate projected technology learning and consistent cost structures, while reflecting recent trends in coal consumption.