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Journal Article

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble

Authors

Seroussi,  Hélène
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Pelle,  Tyler
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Lipscomb,  William H.
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Abe‐Ouchi,  Ayako
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/persons/resource/Torsten.Albrecht

Albrecht,  Torsten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Alvarez‐Solas,  Jorge
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Asay‐Davis,  Xylar
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Barre,  Jean‐Baptiste
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Berends,  Constantijn J.
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Bernales,  Jorge
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Blasco,  Javier
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Caillet,  Justine
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Chandler,  David M.
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Coulon,  Violaine
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Cullather,  Richard
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Dumas,  Christophe
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Galton‐Fenzi,  Benjamin K.
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/persons/resource/julius.garbe

Garbe,  Julius
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gillet‐Chaulet,  Fabien
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Gladstone,  Rupert
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Goelzer,  Heiko
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Golledge,  Nicholas
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Greve,  Ralf
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Gudmundsson,  G. Hilmar
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Han,  Holly Kyeore
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Hillebrand,  Trevor R.
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Hoffman,  Matthew J.
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Huybrechts,  Philippe
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Jourdain,  Nicolas C.
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/persons/resource/klose.ann.kristin

Klose,  Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Langebroek,  Petra M.
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Leguy,  Gunter R.
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Lowry,  Daniel P.
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Mathiot,  Pierre
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Montoya,  Marisa
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Morlighem,  Mathieu
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Nowicki,  Sophie
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Pattyn,  Frank
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Payne,  Antony J.
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Quiquet,  Aurélien
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/persons/resource/Ronja.Reese

Reese,  Ronja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Robinson,  Alexander
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Saraste,  Leopekka
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Simon,  Erika G.
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Sun,  Sainan
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Twarog,  Jake P.
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Trusel,  Luke D.
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Urruty,  Benoit
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Van Breedam,  Jonas
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van de Wal,  Roderik S. W.
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Wang,  Yu
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Zhao,  Chen
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Zwinger,  Thomas
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Fulltext (public)

30218oa.pdf
(Publisher version), 31MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez‐Solas, J., Asay‐Davis, X., Barre, J., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton‐Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet‐Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., Zwinger, T. (2024): Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble. - Earth's Future, 12, 9, e2024EF004561.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30218
Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are considered tipping elements in the climate system, where global warming exceeding critical threshold levels in forcing can lead to large–scale and nonlinear reductions in ice volume and overturning strength, respectively. The positive–negative feedback loop governing their interaction (with a destabilizing effect on the AMOC due to ice loss and subsequent freshwater flux into the North Atlantic as well as a stabilizing effect of a net–cooling around Greenland with an AMOC weakening) may determine the long–term stability of both tipping elements. Here we explore the potential dynamic regimes arising from this positive–negative tipping feedback loop in a process–based conceptual model. Under idealized forcing scenarios we identify conditions under which different kinds of tipping cascades can occur: Herein, we distinguish between overshoot tipping cascades (leading to tipping of both GIS and AMOC) and rate–induced tipping cascades (where the AMOC despite not having crossed its own intrinsic tipping point tips nonetheless due to the fast rate of ice loss from Greenland). These different cascades occur within corridors of distinct tipping pathways that are affected by the GIS melting patterns and thus eventually by the imposed forcing and its time scales. Our results suggest that it is not only necessary to avoid breaching the respective critical levels of the environmental drivers for the Greenland Ice Sheet and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but also to respect safe rates of environmental change to mitigate potential domino effects.