要旨
Food production (see Section 6.3.2) in Europe is intricately influenced by numerous climatic and non-climatic factors, including droughts, heatwaves, biodiversity loss and socio-economic dynamics (Bednar-Friedl et al., 2022; Bezner Kerr et al., 2022).
Climate change reshapes the conditions suitable for crop production, intensifies risks for weather-related crop/food losses, causes the introduction and establishment of new plant pests, increases the physical and biological risks to animal production systems and shifts the food web and species abundances relevant for fisheries.
Together they escalate risks for food security. Under high-end climate change scenarios, southern Europe is particularly vulnerable to deteriorating conditions for food production (Bednar-Friedl et al., 2022; Rossi et al., 2023). The climate impact drivers influencing the region include declining precipitation and increased frequency of extreme heatwaves and droughts, as well as periods of extremely high precipitation, impacting yields of staple crops, fruits and vegetables and raising food prices, especially of nutritious foods. Moreover, the region is susceptible to the establishment of most (sub-)tropical plant pests. A northward shift of agro-climatic zones and the climate suitability of specific crops requires changes in the entire agricultural production system in southern Europe; northern regions, too, face considerable challenges, but also opportunities, associated with climate change (Franke et al., 2022).
While Europe is self-sufficient in most food commodities, trade dependencies and global markets co-determine consumer food prices (Hedlund et al., 2022). Also, climate-related changes to transport, food storage and processing can contribute to food insecurity (see Section 6.3.2). Currently, approximately 7% of the European population faces moderate-to-severe food insecurity, notably affecting disadvantaged groups and south-eastern European countries are most affected (FAO et al., 2022). Risks to food security (see Section 6.3.3) depend on income levels, food prices and accessibility to and affordability of food, with risks originating inside and outside Europe.
This factsheet explores climate-related risks to food production and security, emphasising the interplay with underlying non-climatic drivers, e.g. technological and demographic developments. It underscores the need for comprehensive and integrated policies and mitigation strategies to ensure sufficient food production and food security in the face of climate change. The Chapters 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 14, 16 provide additional perspectives for this factsheet.
