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Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Urheber*innen

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
External Organizations;

Ganti,  Gaurav
External Organizations;

Lejeune,  Quentin
External Organizations;

Zhu,  Biqing
External Organizations;

Pfleiderer,  Peter
External Organizations;

Prütz,  Ruben
External Organizations;

Ciais,  Philippe
External Organizations;

Frölicher,  Thomas L.
External Organizations;

Fuss,  Sabine
External Organizations;

Gasser,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Gidden,  Matthew J.
External Organizations;

Kropf,  Chahan M.
External Organizations;

Lacroix,  Fabrice
External Organizations;

Lamboll,  Robin
External Organizations;

Martyr,  Rosanne
External Organizations;

Maussion,  Fabien
External Organizations;

McCaughey,  Jamie W.
External Organizations;

Meinshausen,  Malte
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nicholls,  Zebedee
External Organizations;

Quilcaille,  Yann
External Organizations;

Sanderson,  Benjamin
External Organizations;

Seneviratne,  Sonia I.
External Organizations;

Sillmann,  Jana
External Organizations;

Smith,  Christopher J.
External Organizations;

Steinert,  Norman J.
External Organizations;

Theokritoff,  Emily
External Organizations;

Warren,  Rachel
External Organizations;

Price,  Jeff
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Externe Ressourcen

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6963586
(Ergänzendes Material)

Volltexte (frei zugänglich)

s41586-024-08020-9.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 75MB

Ergänzendes Material (frei zugänglich)
Es sind keine frei zugänglichen Ergänzenden Materialien verfügbar
Zitation

Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G., Lejeune, Q., Zhu, B., Pfleiderer, P., Prütz, R., Ciais, P., Frölicher, T. L., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Gidden, M. J., Kropf, C. M., Lacroix, F., Lamboll, R., Martyr, R., Maussion, F., McCaughey, J. W., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Nicholls, Z., Quilcaille, Y., Sanderson, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Sillmann, J., Smith, C. J., Steinert, N. J., Theokritoff, E., Warren, R., Price, J., Rogelj, J. (2024): Overconfidence in climate overshoot. - Nature, 634, 366-373.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30414
Zusammenfassung
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.