Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets

Sörgel, Björn; Rauner, Sebastian; Daioglou, Vassilis; Weindl, Isabelle; Mastrucci, Alessio; Carrer, Fabio; Kikstra, Jarmo; Ambrósio, Geanderson; Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bos, Astrid; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Dirnaichner, Alois; Doelman, Jonathan C; Hasse, Robin; Hernandez, Ariel; Hoppe, Johanna; Humpenöder, Florian; Iacobuţă, Gabriela Ileana; Keppler, Dorothee; Koch, Johannes; Luderer, Gunnar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Pehl, Michaja; Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel; Popp, Alexander; Remy, Merle; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Cornell, Sarah; Dombrowsky, Ines; Hertwich, Edgar G; Schmidt, Falk; van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af

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Journal Article

Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets

Authors

/persons/resource/bjoern.soergel

Sörgel, Björn
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Sebastian.Rauner

Rauner, Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Isabelle.Weindl

Weindl, Isabelle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Mastrucci, Alessio
External Organizations;

Carrer, Fabio
External Organizations;

Kikstra, Jarmo
External Organizations;

Ambrósio, Geanderson
External Organizations;

Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark, Lavinia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Bodirsky

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bos, Astrid
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/dirnaichner

Dirnaichner, Alois
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Doelman, Jonathan C
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/robin.krekeler

Hasse, Robin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Hernandez, Ariel
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Johanna.Hoppe

Hoppe, Johanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Iacobuţă, Gabriela Ileana
External Organizations;

Keppler, Dorothee
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Johannes.Koch

Koch, Johannes
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl, Michaja
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Remy, Merle
External Organizations;

van Zeist, Willem-Jan
External Organizations;

Cornell, Sarah
External Organizations;

Dombrowsky, Ines
External Organizations;

Hertwich, Edgar G
External Organizations;

Schmidt, Falk
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13752116
(Supplementary material)

Fulltext (public)

Soergel_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_124009.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

Supplementary Material (public)

There is no public supplementary material available

Citation

Sörgel, B., Rauner, S., Daioglou, V., Weindl, I., Mastrucci, A., Carrer, F., Kikstra, J., Ambrósio, G., Aguiar, A. P. D., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Bos, A., Dietrich, J. P., Dirnaichner, A., Doelman, J. C., Hasse, R., Hernandez, A., Hoppe, J., Humpenöder, F., Iacobuţă, G. I., Keppler, D., Koch, J., Luderer, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Pehl, M., Poblete-Cazenave, M., Popp, A., Remy, M., van Zeist, W.-J., Cornell, S., Dombrowsky, I., Hertwich, E. G., Schmidt, F., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E. (2024): Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets. - Environmental Research Letters, 19, 12, 124009.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30500

Abstract

The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. Here we quantify three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs), Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons, that reflect these different societal strategies. We compare the quantifications from two integrated assessment models and two sectoral models of the buildings and materials sectors across a broad set of indicators for sustainable development and climate action. Our global multi-scenario and multi-model analysis shows that all three SDPs enable substantial progress towards the human development goals of the SDGs. They simultaneously limit global warming and prevent further environmental degradation, with the sufficiency-oriented Resilient Communities scenario showing the lowest peak warming and lowest reliance on carbon dioxide removal as well as the largest improvements in biodiversity intactness. The SDPs also alleviate the concerns about the biogeophysical and technological feasibility of narrowly-focused climate change mitigation scenarios. However, the shifts in energy and food consumption patterns assumed in the SDPs, ranging from moderate in Economy-driven Innovation to very ambitious in Resilient Communities, also lead to increased challenges regarding socio-cultural feasibility.