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Journal Article

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Authors

Burton,  Chantelle
External Organizations;

Lampe,  Seppe
External Organizations;

Kelley,  Douglas I.
External Organizations;

Thiery,  Wim
External Organizations;

Hantson,  Stijn
External Organizations;

Christidis,  Nikos
External Organizations;

Gudmundsson,  Lukas
External Organizations;

Forrest,  Matthew
External Organizations;

Burke,  Eleanor
External Organizations;

Chang,  Jinfeng
External Organizations;

Huang,  Huilin
External Organizations;

Ito,  Akihiko
External Organizations;

Kou-Giesbrecht,  Sian
External Organizations;

Lasslop,  Gitta
External Organizations;

Li,  Wei
External Organizations;

Nieradzik,  Lars
External Organizations;

Li,  Fang
External Organizations;

Chen,  Yang
External Organizations;

Randerson,  James
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.446106
(Supplementary material)

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Citation

Burton, C., Lampe, S., Kelley, D. I., Thiery, W., Hantson, S., Christidis, N., Gudmundsson, L., Forrest, M., Burke, E., Chang, J., Huang, H., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Lasslop, G., Li, W., Nieradzik, L., Li, F., Chen, Y., Randerson, J., Reyer, C. P. O., Mengel, M. (2024): Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change. - Nature Climate Change, 14, 1186-1192.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30583
Abstract
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.