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Journal Article

Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Authors

Park,  Chae Yeon
External Organizations;

Takahashi,  Kiyoshi
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Jansakoo,  Thanapat
External Organizations;

Burton,  Chantelle
External Organizations;

Huang,  Huilin
External Organizations;

Kou-Giesbrecht,  Sian
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Burke,  Eleanor
External Organizations;

Li,  Fang
External Organizations;

Hantson,  Stijn
External Organizations;

Takakura,  Junya
External Organizations;

Lee,  Dong Kun
External Organizations;

Hasegawa,  Tomoko
External Organizations;

External Ressource

https://data.isimip.org/
(Supplementary material)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13231638
(Supplementary material)

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Citation

Park, C. Y., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Jansakoo, T., Burton, C., Huang, H., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Reyer, C. P. O., Mengel, M., Burke, E., Li, F., Hantson, S., Takakura, J., Lee, D. K., Hasegawa, T. (2024): Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change. - Nature Climate Change, 14, 1193-1200.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30586
Abstract
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.