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Journal Article

Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity

Authors

Swaminathan,  Ranjini
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe,  Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Walton,  Jeremy
External Organizations;

Zimmermann,  Klaus
External Organizations;

Jones,  Colin
External Organizations;

Betts,  Richard A.
External Organizations;

Burton,  Chantelle
External Organizations;

Jones,  Chris D.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Turner,  Andrew G.
External Organizations;

Weigel,  Katja
External Organizations;

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Citation

Swaminathan, R., Schewe, J., Walton, J., Zimmermann, K., Jones, C., Betts, R. A., Burton, C., Jones, C. D., Mengel, M., Reyer, C. P. O., Turner, A. G., Weigel, K. (2024): Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity. - Earth's Future, 12, 12, e2024EF004901.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_30940
Abstract
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest-generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.