Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries 
Change: FishMIP 2.0

Blanchard, Julia L.; Novaglio, Camilla; Maury, Olivier; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Petrik, Colleen M.; Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse; Ortega‐Cisneros, Kelly; Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Heneghan, Ryan; Roberts, Kelsey; Schewe, Jacob; Bianchi, Daniele; Guiet, Jerome; Daniel van Denderen, P.; Palacios‐Abrantes, Juliano; Liu, Xiao; Stock, Charles A.; Rousseau, Yannick; Büchner, Matthias; Adekoya, Ezekiel O.; Bulman, Cathy; Cheung, William; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Capitani, Leonardo; Datta, Samik; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Fuster, Alba; Garza, Victoria; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Lindmark, Max; Murphy, Kieran; Ouled‐Cheikh, Jazel; Prasad, Sowdamini S.; Oliveros‐Ramos, Ricardo; Reum, Jonathan C.; Rynne, Nina; Scherrer, Kim J. N.; Shin, Yunne‐Jai; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Woodworth‐Jefcoats, Phoebe; Wu, Yan‐Lun; Tittensor, Derek P.

doi:10.1029/2023EF004402

アイテム詳細

登録内容を編集ファイル形式で保存

一時保存へ追加

タグ情報を表示リリース履歴を表示詳細要約

公開

学術論文

Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0

Authors

Blanchard, Julia L.
External Organizations;

Novaglio, Camilla
External Organizations;

Maury, Olivier
External Organizations;

Harrison, Cheryl S.
External Organizations;

Petrik, Colleen M.
External Organizations;

Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse
External Organizations;

Ortega‐Cisneros, Kelly
External Organizations;

Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea
External Organizations;

Eddy, Tyler D.
External Organizations;

Heneghan, Ryan
External Organizations;

Roberts, Kelsey
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Schewe

Schewe, Jacob
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Bianchi, Daniele
External Organizations;

Guiet, Jerome
External Organizations;

Daniel van Denderen, P.
External Organizations;

Palacios‐Abrantes, Juliano
External Organizations;

Liu, Xiao
External Organizations;

Stock, Charles A.
External Organizations;

Rousseau, Yannick
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Matthias.Buechner

Büchner, Matthias
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Adekoya, Ezekiel O.
External Organizations;

Bulman, Cathy
External Organizations;

Cheung, William
External Organizations;

Christensen, Villy
External Organizations;

Coll, Marta
External Organizations;

Capitani, Leonardo
External Organizations;

Datta, Samik
External Organizations;

Fulton, Elizabeth A.
External Organizations;

Fuster, Alba
External Organizations;

Garza, Victoria
External Organizations;

Lengaigne, Matthieu
External Organizations;

Lindmark, Max
External Organizations;

Murphy, Kieran
External Organizations;

Ouled‐Cheikh, Jazel
External Organizations;

Prasad, Sowdamini S.
External Organizations;

Oliveros‐Ramos, Ricardo
External Organizations;

Reum, Jonathan C.
External Organizations;

Rynne, Nina
External Organizations;

Scherrer, Kim J. N.
External Organizations;

Shin, Yunne‐Jai
External Organizations;

Steenbeek, Jeroen
External Organizations;

Woodworth‐Jefcoats, Phoebe
External Organizations;

Wu, Yan‐Lun
External Organizations;

Tittensor, Derek P.
External Organizations;

URL

https://www.isimip.org/outputdata/isimip-repository/
(付録資料)

フルテキスト (公開)

Earth s Future - 2024 - Blanchard - Detecting Attributing and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change .pdf
(出版社版), 2MB

付随資料 (公開)

There is no public supplementary material available

引用

Blanchard, J. L., Novaglio, C., Maury, O., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Fierro‐Arcos, D., Ortega‐Cisneros, K., Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Eddy, T. D., Heneghan, R., Roberts, K., Schewe, J., Bianchi, D., Guiet, J., Daniel van Denderen, P., Palacios‐Abrantes, J., Liu, X., Stock, C. A., Rousseau, Y., Büchner, M., Adekoya, E. O., Bulman, C., Cheung, W., Christensen, V., Coll, M., Capitani, L., Datta, S., Fulton, E. A., Fuster, A., Garza, V., Lengaigne, M., Lindmark, M., Murphy, K., Ouled‐Cheikh, J., Prasad, S. S., Oliveros‐Ramos, R., Reum, J. C., Rynne, N., Scherrer, K. J. N., Shin, Y., Steenbeek, J., Woodworth‐Jefcoats, P., Wu, Y., & Tittensor, D. P. (2024). Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0. Earth's Future, 12(12):. doi:10.1029/2023EF004402.

引用: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31582

要旨

There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio-temporal scales relevant to the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states - a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two-track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.