Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate 
targets

Windisch, Michael G.; Humpenöder, Florian; Merfort, Leon; Bauer, Nicolas; Luderer, Gunnar; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Abrahão, Gabriel Medeiros; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x

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Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets

Authors

/persons/resource/michael.windisch

Windisch, Michael G.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Florian.Humpenoeder

Humpenöder, Florian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/leon.merfort

Merfort, Leon
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jan.Dietrich

Dietrich, Jan Philipp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jens.Heinke

Heinke, Jens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/abrahao

Abrahão, Gabriel Medeiros
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Lotze-Campen

Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Alexander.Popp

Popp, Alexander
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14772621
(Supplementary material)

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31964oa.pdf
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Citation

Windisch, M. G., Humpenöder, F., Merfort, L., Bauer, N., Luderer, G., Dietrich, J. P., Heinke, J., Müller, C., Abrahão, G. M., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. (2025): Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets. - Nature Communications, 16, 2460.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_31964

Abstract

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s CO2 emission reduction goals heavily relies on enhancing carbon storage and sequestration in forests globally. Yet, the increasing vulnerability of carbon stored in forests to both climate change and human intervention is often neglected in current mitigation strategies. Our study explores modelled interactions between key emission sectors, indicating that accelerated decarbonization could meet climate objectives despite forest carbon losses due to disturbances. However, delaying action on forest carbon loss by just five years consistently doubles the additional mitigation costs and efforts across key sectors, regardless of the assessed forest disturbance rates. Moreover, these myopic responses to forest carbon loss are as stringent, or even more demanding, than immediate responses to twice the forest disturbance rate. Our results underline the urgent need to monitor and safeguard forests for the economic feasibility of the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.