Oscillation-induced yield loss in China partially driven by migratory pests 
from mainland Southeast Asia

Wang, Chenzhi; Wang, Xuhui; Sang, Yuxing; Müller, Christoph; Huang, Yao; Li, Laurent; Cooke, Diane; Zhao, Quanbo; Zhang, Liangliang; Lu, Yahai; Zhou, Feng; Liu, Hongyan; Tao, Fulu; Lin, Tao; Piao, Shilong

doi:10.1038/s43016-025-01158-3

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Oscillation-induced yield loss in China partially driven by migratory pests from mainland Southeast Asia

Authors

Wang, Chenzhi
External Organizations;

Wang, Xuhui
External Organizations;

Sang, Yuxing
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Huang, Yao
External Organizations;

Li, Laurent
External Organizations;

Cooke, Diane
External Organizations;

Zhao, Quanbo
External Organizations;

Zhang, Liangliang
External Organizations;

Lu, Yahai
External Organizations;

Zhou, Feng
External Organizations;

Liu, Hongyan
External Organizations;

Tao, Fulu
External Organizations;

Lin, Tao
External Organizations;

Piao, Shilong
External Organizations;

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Citation

Wang, C., Wang, X., Sang, Y., Müller, C., Huang, Y., Li, L., Cooke, D., Zhao, Q., Zhang, L., Lu, Y., Zhou, F., Liu, H., Tao, F., Lin, T., Piao, S. (2025 online): Oscillation-induced yield loss in China partially driven by migratory pests from mainland Southeast Asia. - Nature Food.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01158-3

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32196

Abstract

Large-scale climate oscillations are recognized as skilful predictors of variations in global and regional crop yield. However, the mechanisms linking climate oscillations to crop yield variations remain unclear and are widely assumed to result from crop physiological responses to oscillation-induced local climate variations. Here we assessed the pattern of oscillation-induced yield variations in China over the past four decades and found that El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary climatic oscillation associated with extreme yield anomalies, particularly in southern China. These ENSO-related extreme yield anomalies are driven not only by local climate anomalies but also by greater occurrences of crop pests and diseases. Interestingly, the greater occurrence of crop pests is not triggered by local climate anomalies but is linked to ENSO-forced climate anomalies in mainland Southeast Asia, the source region of these pests, fuelled by the ENSO-driven circulation pattern facilitating their migration to China. Given the projected increase in the frequency of ENSO events in a warming future, effectively mitigating such oscillation-induced crop failures requires cross-border collaboration between the source and receiving countries of crop pests.