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A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis

Urheber*innen

Gambhir,  Ajay
External Organizations;

Albert,  Michael J.
External Organizations;

Doe,  Sylvanus S. P.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Donges

Donges,  Jonathan Friedemann       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Farajalla,  Nadim
External Organizations;

Giatti,  Leandro L.
External Organizations;

Gundimeda,  Haripriya
External Organizations;

Hendel-Blackford,  Sarah
External Organizations;

Homer-Dixon,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Hoyer,  Daniel
External Organizations;

Adan,  Sumaya
External Organizations;

Jacome-Polit,  David
External Organizations;

Kemp,  Luke
External Organizations;

Korowicz,  David
External Organizations;

Kovacic,  Zora
External Organizations;

Kwakkel,  Jan
External Organizations;

Laybourn,  Laurie
External Organizations;

Lempert,  Robert
External Organizations;

Mahamoud,  Ayan
External Organizations;

Oliver,  Tom H.
External Organizations;

Pavkova,  Ivana E.
External Organizations;

Ponnoly,  Joseph
External Organizations;

Satgar,  Vishwas
External Organizations;

Shipman,  Megan
External Organizations;

Sillmann,  Jana
External Organizations;

Silver,  Nick
External Organizations;

Stevenson,  Samuel
External Organizations;

Richardson,  Ruth
External Organizations;

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32386oa.pdf
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Zitation

Gambhir, A., Albert, M. J., Doe, S. S. P., Donges, J. F., Farajalla, N., Giatti, L. L., Gundimeda, H., Hendel-Blackford, S., Homer-Dixon, T., Hoyer, D., Adan, S., Jacome-Polit, D., Kemp, L., Korowicz, D., Kovacic, Z., Kwakkel, J., Laybourn, L., Lempert, R., Mahamoud, A., Oliver, T. H., Pavkova, I. E., Ponnoly, J., Satgar, V., Shipman, M., Sillmann, J., Silver, N., Stevenson, S., Richardson, R. (2025): A systemic risk assessment methodological framework for the global polycrisis. - Nature Communications, 16, 7382.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32386
Zusammenfassung
Human societies and ecological systems face increasingly severe risks, stemming from crossing planetary boundaries, worsening inequality, rising geo-political tensions, and new technologies. In an interconnected world, these risks can exacerbate each-other, creating systemic risks, which must be thoroughly assessed and responded to. Recent years have seen the emergence of analytical frameworks designed specifically for, or applicable to, systemic risk assessment, adding to the multitude of tools and models for analysing and simulating different systems. By assessing two recent global food and energy systemic crises, we propose a methodological framework applicable to assessing systemic risks in a polycrisis context, drawing from and building on existing approaches. Our framework’s polycrisis-specific features include: exploring system architectures including their objectives and political economy; consideration of transformational responses away from risks; and cross-cutting practices including consideration of non-human life, trans-disciplinarity, and diversity, transparency and communication of uncertainty around data, evidence and methods.