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Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950

Urheber*innen
/persons/resource/Dominik.Paprotny

Paprotny,  Dominik       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Tilloy,  Aloïs
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Simon.Treu

Treu,  Simon       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Buch,  Anna
External Organizations;

Vousdoukas,  Michalis I.
External Organizations;

Feyen,  Luc
External Organizations;

Kreibich,  Heidi
External Organizations;

Merz,  Bruno
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Externe Ressourcen

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13149827
(Forschungsdaten)

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6826535
(Code)

Volltexte (beschränkter Zugriff)
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sciadv.adt7068.pdf
(Verlagsversion), 4MB

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Zitation

Paprotny, D., Tilloy, A., Treu, S., Buch, A., Vousdoukas, M. I., Feyen, L., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Frieler, K., Mengel, M. (2025): Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950. - Science Advances, 11, eadt7068.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt7068


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_32640
Zusammenfassung
Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.