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Abstract

Importing renewable energy to Europe may offer many potential benefits, including reduced energy costs, lower pressure on infrastructure development, and less land use within Europe. However, open questions remain: on the achievable cost reductions, how much should be imported, whether the energy vector should be electricity, hydrogen, or derivatives like ammonia or steel, and their impact on Europe’s infrastructure needs. This study integrates a global energy supply chain model with a European energy system model to explore net-zero emission scenarios with varying import volumes, costs, and vectors. We find system cost reductions of 1-10%, within import cost variations of ± 20%, with diminishing returns for larger import volumes and a preference for methanol, steel and hydrogen imports. Keeping some domestic power-to-X production is beneficial for integrating variable renewables, leveraging local carbon sources and power-to-X waste heat. Our findings highlight the need for coordinating import strategies with infrastructure policy and reveal maneuvering space for incorporating non-cost decision factors.