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Abstract

Integrating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with disaster risk—potential economic losses from natural hazards—reduction remains a critical yet daunting challenge. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of disaster risk across China, using a modified National Risk Index framework, with a focus on social vulnerability (i.e., susceptibility to disasters) and community resilience (i.e., capacity to adapt and recover). Spearman correlations were used to examine the magnitude and direction of relationships between SDG progress and disaster risk. Our results show that, nationally, China's disaster risk index fluctuated from being medium (11.62) in 2000 to low (3.83) in 2010, before rising again to a medium level of risk (16.22) in 2021. Crucially, the overall dynamic relationship between SDG progress and disaster risk is nonlinear. With greater progress in achieving SDGs, the disaster risk declines at first but then rebounds at the national scale, or it stabilizes at the provincial scale. We find that this pattern is driven chiefly by social vulnerability, given its similar trend to SDG progress, while community resilience increases linearly with SDG progress. Further, poverty reduction (SDG1) and quality education (SDG4) emerged as primary risk mitigators in the national scale analysis, contrasting sharply with the substantial variation in impactful SDGs among provinces. Hence, this study argues for a regionally tailored SDG prioritization strategy to prevent escalating potential economic losses from disasters triggered by natural hazards, emphasizing the dual optimization of sustainable development and risk governance frameworks.