Item

Abstract

Climate change is projected to become limiting for cocoa production which can threaten people’s livelihood and drastically increase the pressure on protected forest land. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts on the suitability to grow cocoa is key for a resilient land use planning. The novelty is that we are assessing the impact of climate change on the suitability for a multi-tree system with cocoa and two companion fruit trees safou – a high-value indigenous tree fruit – and mango for the specific context of Cameroon considering the barriers of protected areas and forest land. We further advanced the EcoCrop model by integrating consecutive dry months and long-term climate projections. Finally, we are assessing the potential of the companion (shading) trees to cover areas that are predicted to deteriorate in their ability to grow cocoa to provide information on the adaptation potential. The results show a reduction of suitable areas for cocoa production from currently 64% of the total area of Cameroon to 27% by 2090 (SSP370). Climate change has also drastic effects on multi-tree suitability, only 8% of the national area remain suitable. However, both investigated fruit trees can cover the cocoa loss areas under the SSP370 with 100% (both) by 2030, 77% (safou) and 70% (mango) by 2050 and 83% (safou) and 76% (mango) by 2090. The results of this study can thus help stakeholders to develop appropriate strategies for cocoa-agroforestry-systems, which anticipate the risks of climate change and the solutions to reduce further deforestation in Cameroon.