Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate 
change impacts

Auer, Cornelia; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Adamczak, Weronika; Aylett, Chris; Benzie, Magnus; Berndt, Jan Philipp; Bresch, David N.; Bosello, Francesco; Bressan, Giacomo; Carter, Timothy R.; Croft, Simon; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Desmidt, Sophie; Detges, Adrien; Duranovic, Anja; Fronzek, Stefan; Harris, Katy; Hildén, Mikael; Jarzabek, Lukasz; Key, Ramon; King, Richard; Kivimaa, Paula; Klein, Richard J. T.; Knaepen, Hanne; Lahn, Glada; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Mikaelsson, Mikael; Monasterolo, Irene; Mosoni, Claire; Otto, Ilona M.; Parrado, Ramiro; Pitzen, Samuli; Pohl, Benjamin; Puig, Oriol; Saes-Heibel, Hetty; Stokeld, Emilie; Talebian, Sara; Tondel, Fabien; Townend, Ruth; West, Chris; Woertz, Eckart; Wunderling, Nico

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2

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Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

Urheber*innen

/persons/resource/auer

Auer, Cornelia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Adamczak, Weronika
External Organizations;

Aylett, Chris
External Organizations;

Benzie, Magnus
External Organizations;

Berndt, Jan Philipp
External Organizations;

Bresch, David N.
External Organizations;

Bosello, Francesco
External Organizations;

Bressan, Giacomo
External Organizations;

Carter, Timothy R.
External Organizations;

Croft, Simon
External Organizations;

Delpiazzo, Elisa
External Organizations;

Desmidt, Sophie
External Organizations;

Detges, Adrien
External Organizations;

Duranovic, Anja
External Organizations;

Fronzek, Stefan
External Organizations;

Harris, Katy
External Organizations;

Hildén, Mikael
External Organizations;

Jarzabek, Lukasz
External Organizations;

Key, Ramon
External Organizations;

King, Richard
External Organizations;

Kivimaa, Paula
External Organizations;

Klein, Richard J. T.
External Organizations;

Knaepen, Hanne
External Organizations;

Lahn, Glada
External Organizations;

Magnuszewski, Piotr
External Organizations;

Mikaelsson, Mikael
External Organizations;

Monasterolo, Irene
External Organizations;

Mosoni, Claire
External Organizations;

Otto, Ilona M.
External Organizations;

Parrado, Ramiro
External Organizations;

Pitzen, Samuli
External Organizations;

Pohl, Benjamin
External Organizations;

Puig, Oriol
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hetty.saesheibel

Saes-Heibel, Hetty
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Stokeld, Emilie
External Organizations;

Talebian, Sara
External Organizations;

Tondel, Fabien
External Organizations;

Townend, Ruth
External Organizations;

West, Chris
External Organizations;

Woertz, Eckart
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Nico.Wunderling

Wunderling, Nico
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Externe Ressourcen

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15706192
(Forschungsdaten)

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33063oa.pdf
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Zitation

Auer, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Adamczak, W., Aylett, C., Benzie, M., Berndt, J. P., Bresch, D. N., Bosello, F., Bressan, G., Carter, T. R., Croft, S., Delpiazzo, E., Desmidt, S., Detges, A., Duranovic, A., Fronzek, S., Harris, K., Hildén, M., Jarzabek, L., Key, R., King, R., Kivimaa, P., Klein, R. J. T., Knaepen, H., Lahn, G., Magnuszewski, P., Mikaelsson, M., Monasterolo, I., Mosoni, C., Otto, I. M., Parrado, R., Pitzen, S., Pohl, B., Puig, O., Saes-Heibel, H., Stokeld, E., Talebian, S., Tondel, F., Townend, R., West, C., Woertz, E., Wunderling, N. (2025): Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts. - Nature Climate Change, 15, 1226-1233.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33063

Zusammenfassung

In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.