Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of 
the state of the climate system and human influence

Forster, Piers M.; Smith, Chris; Walsh, Tristram; Lamb, William F.; Lamboll, Robin; Cassou, Christophe; Hauser, Mathias; Hausfather, Zeke; Lee, June-Yi; Palmer, Matthew D.; von Schuckmann, Karina; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Szopa, Sophie; Trewin, Blair; Yun, Jeongeun; Gillett, Nathan P.; Jenkins, Stuart; Matthews, H. Damon; Raghavan, Krishnan; Ribes, Aurélien; Rogelj, Joeri; Rosen, Debbie; Zhang, Xuebin; Allen, Myles; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Andrew, Robbie M.; Betts, Richard A.; Borger, Alex; Broersma, Jiddu A.; Burgess, Samantha N.; Cheng, Lijing; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Domingues, Catia M.; Gambarini, Marco; Gasser, Thomas; Gütschow, Johannes; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kadow, Christopher; Kennedy, John; Killick, Rachel E.; Krummel, Paul B.; Liné, Aurélien; Monselesan, Didier P.; Morice, Colin; Mühle, Jens; Naik, Vaishali; Peters, Glen P.; Pirani, Anna; Pongratz, Julia; Minx, Jan C.; Rigby, Matthew; Rohde, Robert; Savita, Abhishek; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Thorne, Peter; Wells, Christopher; Western, Luke M.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Wijffels, Susan E.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Zhai, Panmao

doi:10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025

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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Authors

Forster, Piers M.
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Smith, Chris
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Walsh, Tristram
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/persons/resource/William.Lamb

Lamb, William F.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lamboll, Robin
External Organizations;

Cassou, Christophe
External Organizations;

Hauser, Mathias
External Organizations;

Hausfather, Zeke
External Organizations;

Lee, June-Yi
External Organizations;

Palmer, Matthew D.
External Organizations;

von Schuckmann, Karina
External Organizations;

Slangen, Aimée B. A.
External Organizations;

Szopa, Sophie
External Organizations;

Trewin, Blair
External Organizations;

Yun, Jeongeun
External Organizations;

Gillett, Nathan P.
External Organizations;

Jenkins, Stuart
External Organizations;

Matthews, H. Damon
External Organizations;

Raghavan, Krishnan
External Organizations;

Ribes, Aurélien
External Organizations;

Rogelj, Joeri
External Organizations;

Rosen, Debbie
External Organizations;

Zhang, Xuebin
External Organizations;

Allen, Myles
External Organizations;

Aleluia Reis, Lara
External Organizations;

Andrew, Robbie M.
External Organizations;

Betts, Richard A.
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Borger, Alex
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Broersma, Jiddu A.
External Organizations;

Burgess, Samantha N.
External Organizations;

Cheng, Lijing
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Friedlingstein, Pierre
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Domingues, Catia M.
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Gambarini, Marco
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Gasser, Thomas
External Organizations;

Gütschow, Johannes
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Ishii, Masayoshi
External Organizations;

Kadow, Christopher
External Organizations;

Kennedy, John
External Organizations;

Killick, Rachel E.
External Organizations;

Krummel, Paul B.
External Organizations;

Liné, Aurélien
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Monselesan, Didier P.
External Organizations;

Morice, Colin
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Mühle, Jens
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Naik, Vaishali
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Peters, Glen P.
External Organizations;

Pirani, Anna
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Pongratz, Julia
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/persons/resource/jan.minx

Minx, Jan C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rigby, Matthew
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Rohde, Robert
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Savita, Abhishek
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Seneviratne, Sonia I.
External Organizations;

Thorne, Peter
External Organizations;

Wells, Christopher
External Organizations;

Western, Luke M.
External Organizations;

van der Werf, Guido R.
External Organizations;

Wijffels, Susan E.
External Organizations;

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie
External Organizations;

Zhai, Panmao
External Organizations;

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Citation

Forster, P. M., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Aleluia Reis, L., Andrew, R. M., Betts, R. A., Borger, A., Broersma, J. A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Friedlingstein, P., Domingues, C. M., Gambarini, M., Gasser, T., Gütschow, J., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Krummel, P. B., Liné, A., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Naik, V., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Minx, J. C., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P. (2025): Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. - Earth System Science Data, 17, 6, 2641-2680.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33070

Abstract

In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report.

The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.