Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment

Abram, Nerilie J.; Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H.; McCormack, Felicity S.; Strugnell, Jan M.; Bergstrom, Dana M.; Vance, Tessa R.; Stål, Tobias; Wienecke, Barbara; Heil, Petra; Doddridge, Edward W.; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Williams, Thomas J.; Reading, Anya M.; Mackintosh, Andrew; Reese, Ronja; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Klose, Ann Kristin; Boyd, Philip W.; Chown, Steven L.; Robinson, Sharon A.

doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5

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Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment

Urheber*innen

Abram, Nerilie J.
External Organizations;

Purich, Ariaan
External Organizations;

England, Matthew H.
External Organizations;

McCormack, Felicity S.
External Organizations;

Strugnell, Jan M.
External Organizations;

Bergstrom, Dana M.
External Organizations;

Vance, Tessa R.
External Organizations;

Stål, Tobias
External Organizations;

Wienecke, Barbara
External Organizations;

Heil, Petra
External Organizations;

Doddridge, Edward W.
External Organizations;

Sallée, Jean-Baptiste
External Organizations;

Williams, Thomas J.
External Organizations;

Reading, Anya M.
External Organizations;

Mackintosh, Andrew
External Organizations;

Reese, Ronja
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann, Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/klose.ann.kristin

Klose, Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Boyd, Philip W.
External Organizations;

Chown, Steven L.
External Organizations;

Robinson, Sharon A.
External Organizations;

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Abram, N. J., Purich, A., England, M. H., McCormack, F. S., Strugnell, J. M., Bergstrom, D. M., Vance, T. R., Stål, T., Wienecke, B., Heil, P., Doddridge, E. W., Sallée, J.-B., Williams, T. J., Reading, A. M., Mackintosh, A., Reese, R., Winkelmann, R., Klose, A. K., Boyd, P. W., Chown, S. L., Robinson, S. A. (2025): Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment. - Nature, 644, 621-633.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5

Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33073

Zusammenfassung

Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2 emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth’s climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 °C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes.