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Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding regions, vital to global energy and water cycles, are profoundly influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite widespread attention to vegetation greening across the region since the 1980s, its underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. This study employs the eigen microstates method to quantify vegetation greening dynamics using long-term remote sensing and reanalysis data. We identify two dominant modes that collectively explain more than 61% of the vegetation dynamics. The strong seasonal heterogeneity in the southern TP, primarily driven by radiation and agricultural activities, is reflected in the first mode, which accounts for 46.34% of the variance. The second mode, which explains 15% of the variance, is closely linked to deep soil moisture (SM3, 28 cm to 1 m). Compared to precipitation and surface soil moisture (SM1 and SM2, 0–28 cm), our results show that deep soil moisture exerts a stronger and more immediate influence on vegetation growth, with a one-month response time. This study provides a complexity theory-based framework to quantify vegetation dynamics and underscores the critical influence of deep soil moisture on greening patterns in the TP.