From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution 
of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Coulon, Violaine; Klose, Ann Kristin; Edwards, Tamsin; Turner, Fiona; Pattyn, Frank; Winkelmann, Ricarda

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w

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From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Authors

Coulon, Violaine
External Organizations;

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Klose, Ann Kristin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Edwards, Tamsin
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Turner, Fiona
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Pattyn, Frank
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Ricarda.Winkelmann

Winkelmann, Ricarda
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17432519
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Citation

Coulon, V., Klose, A. K., Edwards, T., Turner, F., Pattyn, F., Winkelmann, R. (2025): From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. - Nature Communications, 16, 10385.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33156

Abstract

Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise.