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Abstract

Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables (ISIMIP3b, processed by CHELSA method at 1 km2) and two topographic variables, four bio-ecological indicators were selected using Pearson correlation and Variance Inflation Factors: Thermicity Index, Ombrothermic Index, Accumulated summer precipitation from June to August, and Maximum of the daily maximum temperature of August. A species distribution model platform (Biomod2) was applied for historical (1995–2014) and future periods (2041–2060, 2081–2100) under two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model created shows a strong predictive performance (BOYCE: 0.98). Historically, 13.4% of the IP was climatically suitable, mainly in mountain areas. Under SSP3-7.0, suitable areas are projected to decline by 74.2% (2041–2060) and 99.3% (2081–2100); under SSP5-8.5, by 75.5% and 99.9%, respectively. While small gains may occur in the Pyrenees, most conservation protected areas (Natura 2000, RAMSAR) may lose suitability for species persistence. Such losses could disrupt ecological ecosystems and directly threaten the survival of P. alcon. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed land-use planning and effective habitat conservation.