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Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change

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Huber,  Veronika
External Organizations;

Breitner-Busch,  Susanne
External Organizations;

Feldbusch,  Hanna
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

He,  Cheng
External Organizations;

Matthies-Wiesler,  Franziska
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/matthias.mengel

Mengel,  Matthias       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Zhang,  Siqi
External Organizations;

Peters,  Annette
External Organizations;

Schneider,  Alexandra
External Organizations;

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33527oa.pdf
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Huber, V., Breitner-Busch, S., Feldbusch, H., Frieler, K., He, C., Matthies-Wiesler, F., Mengel, M., Zhang, S., Peters, A., Schneider, A. (2025): Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change. - Nature Communications, 16, 11632.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66681-0


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33527
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Previous attribution studies of heat-related excess mortality have given limited attention to temporal trends in vulnerability and their non-climatic drivers. Here, we address this gap by combining counterfactual temperature data derived from multidecadal reanalysis series with time-varying warm-season temperature-mortality associations for the 15 most populous cities in Germany over 1993-2022. We find that declining vulnerability, associated with improvements in life expectancy, has led to decreasing trends in heat-related excess mortality in most cities despite summer warming. In contrast, if life expectancies had not improved, climate change would have induced increasing trends in the heat-related death burden. The growing anthropogenic fingerprint also emerges in the relative proportion of heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change, which increased by 5.6% per decade (95% confidence interval: 2.6%, 8.6%), averaging 53.6 % (49.8%, 58.9%) across the study period. Our results underline the importance of accounting for evolving vulnerability when attributing human health outcomes to climate change.