English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Released

Journal Article

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?

Authors

Umbo,  Stuart
External Organizations;

Lechleitner,  Franziska
External Organizations;

Opel,  Thomas
External Organizations;

Modestou,  Sevasti
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/tobraun

Braun,  Tobias       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Vaks,  Anton
External Organizations;

Henderson,  Gideon
External Organizations;

Scott,  Pete
External Organizations;

Osintzev,  Alexander
External Organizations;

Kononov,  Alexandr
External Organizations;

Adrian,  Irina
External Organizations;

Dublyansky,  Yuri
External Organizations;

Giesche,  Alena
External Organizations;

Breitenbach,  Sebastian F. M.
External Organizations;

External Resource
Fulltext (restricted access)
There are currently no full texts shared for your IP range.
Fulltext (public)

Umbo_cp-21-1533-2025.pdf
(Publisher version), 3MB

Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Umbo, S., Lechleitner, F., Opel, T., Modestou, S., Braun, T., Vaks, A., Henderson, G., Scott, P., Osintzev, A., Kononov, A., Adrian, I., Dublyansky, Y., Giesche, A., Breitenbach, S. F. M. (2025): Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – an analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change? - Climate of the Past, 21, 9, 1533-1551.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1533-2025


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33809
Abstract
The Miocene provides an excellent climatic analogue for near-future runaway anthropogenic warming, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global average temperatures similar to those projected for the coming century under extreme-emissions scenarios. However, the magnitude of Miocene Arctic warming remains unclear due to the scarcity of reliable proxy data. Here we use stable oxygen isotope and trace element analyses, alongside clumped isotope and fluid inclusion palaeothermometry of speleothems to reconstruct palaeo-environmental conditions near the Siberian Arctic coast during the Tortonian (8.68 ± 0.09 Ma). Stable oxygen isotope records suggest warmer-than-present temperatures. This is supported by temperature estimates based on clumped isotopes and fluid inclusions giving mean annual air temperatures between +6.6 and +11.1 °C, compared with −12.3 °C today. Trace elements records reveal a highly seasonal hydrological environment.

Our estimate of > 18 °C of Arctic warming supports the wider consensus of a warmer-than-present Miocene and provides a rare palaeo-analogue for future Arctic amplification under high-emissions scenarios. The reconstructed increase in mean surface temperature far exceeds temperatures projected in fully coupled global climate models, even under extreme-emissions scenarios. Given that climate models have consistently underestimated the extent of recent Arctic amplification, our proxy data suggest Arctic warming may exceed current projections.