Faster than politics – Policy forecasting ahead of government formation?

Sprinz, Detlef F.; Krott, Max

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103683

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Faster than politics – Policy forecasting ahead of government formation?

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Sprinz, Detlef F.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Krott, Max
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Sprinz, D. F., Krott, M. (2026): Faster than politics – Policy forecasting ahead of government formation? - Forest Policy and Economics, 182, 103683.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103683

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33859

Abstract

Will a new government potentially formed in 2025 pursue different forest policies as compared to its predecessor? Using the German government formation in spring 2025 as an example, we employ a negotiations prediction model to forecast specific forest policies ahead of their coalition agreement. As compared to predictions about the policies of the immediately preceding government as of 2022, the scope for remuneration of forest carbon will be very mildly increased, the remuneration for forests adapted to climate change somewhat increased, and the predicted remuneration for forest conservation substantially reduced. We demonstrate that short-term policy predictions based on numeric negotiations models are feasible and outline the implications for the forest sector and science-based policy advice.