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Climate Change Economics in Vietnam: Redefining Economic Impact

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/persons/resource/christian.otto

Otto,  Christian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Schult,  Christoph
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/thomas.vogt

Vogt,  Thomas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Otto, C., Schult, C., Vogt, T. (2025): Climate Change Economics in Vietnam: Redefining Economic Impact, (IWH Discussion Papers ; 15/2025), Halle (Saale) : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), 57 p.
https://doi.org/10.18717/dpzggv-cs12


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_33895
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Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 êC with a high-emission scenario reaching 4-5 êC. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.