Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean 
reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere

Zhao, Quanbo; Wang, Chenzhi; Wang, Xuhui; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Müller, Christoph; Wang, Enli; Webber, Heidi; Zhang, Liangliang; Li, Xiangyi; Sang, Yuxing; Zhao, Gang; Folberth, Christian; Jain, Atul; Liu, Wenfeng; Okada, Masashi; Zabel, Florian; Jäegermeyr, Jonas; Guo, Hui; Zhang, Yao; Jiang, Yu; Zhou, Feng; Piao, Shilong

doi:10.1038/s43016-026-01298-0

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Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere

Authors

Zhao, Quanbo
External Organizations;

Wang, Chenzhi
External Organizations;

Wang, Xuhui
External Organizations;

Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Mueller

Müller, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Wang, Enli
External Organizations;

Webber, Heidi
External Organizations;

Zhang, Liangliang
External Organizations;

Li, Xiangyi
External Organizations;

Sang, Yuxing
External Organizations;

Zhao, Gang
External Organizations;

Folberth, Christian
External Organizations;

Jain, Atul
External Organizations;

Liu, Wenfeng
External Organizations;

Okada, Masashi
External Organizations;

Zabel, Florian
External Organizations;

Jäegermeyr, Jonas
External Organizations;

Guo, Hui
External Organizations;

Zhang, Yao
External Organizations;

Jiang, Yu
External Organizations;

Zhou, Feng
External Organizations;

Piao, Shilong
External Organizations;

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Citation

Zhao, Q., Wang, C., Wang, X., Rezaei, E. E., Müller, C., Wang, E., Webber, H., Zhang, L., Li, X., Sang, Y., Zhao, G., Folberth, C., Jain, A., Liu, W., Okada, M., Zabel, F., Jäegermeyr, J., Guo, H., Zhang, Y., Jiang, Y., Zhou, F., Piao, S. (2026 online): Temperature thresholds of extreme heat-induced yield loss in maize and soybean reveal geographic heterogeneity across the Northern Hemisphere. - Nature Food.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01298-0

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34035

Abstract

Exposure to extreme high temperatures is a major constraint on global crop productivity, yet most large-scale assessments rely on fixed temperature thresholds that overlook regional variation in genetics, environment and management. Consequently, the temperature thresholds at which heat exposure begins to cause substantial yield loss and their spatial variability remain unclear. Here we compiled subnational yield census over Northern Hemisphere (20° N–55° N) and analysed the extreme degree days (EDDs) to estimate a data-driven critical threshold (EDDthreshold). Our findings reveal EDDthreshold for maize and soybean are 34.8 ± 4.0 °C and 33.7 ± 3.9 °C, respectively. In contrast, state-of-the-art crop models significantly underestimated EDDthreshold and its spatial variations, leading to overestimated extreme heat exposure, partially explaining their underestimate in yield loss during extreme heat events. We estimate that without adaptations, growing-season extreme heat exposure could increase by 2.4%–16.1% for maize and 4.9%–16.0% for soybean by the end of the century, and sowing-date adjustment alone cannot fully offset the projected increase in extreme heat exposure.