Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies

Tavoni, Massimo; Bauer, Nicolas; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Paltsev, Sergey; Pirani, Anna; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Roberto; van Vuuren, Detlef; Weitzel, Matthias; Kriegler, Elmar

doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7

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Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies

Authors

Tavoni, Massimo
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Fujimori, Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Paltsev, Sergey
External Organizations;

Pirani, Anna
External Organizations;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

Rogelj, Joeri
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
External Organizations;

Weitzel, Matthias
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17603848
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Citation

Tavoni, M., Bauer, N., Drouet, L., Fujimori, S., Paltsev, S., Pirani, A., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Weitzel, M., Kriegler, E. (2026 online): Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies. - Nature Climate Change.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34094

Abstract

Temporary climate overshoot—especially for 1.5 °C—is now unavoidable. In this Perspective, we show how overshoot emerged in mitigation pathways over the past three decades, from a modelling device for exploring stringent climate goals to an inevitable feature of scenarios. Depending on its extent, overshoot affects the pace and feasibility of emissions reductions, the distribution of socio-economic outcomes, and climate risks in time and space. We show that the magnitude and consequences of overshoot depend not only on biophysical characteristics and model assumptions but equally on scenario design and social and institutional factors. We outline priorities for a new generation of models and scenarios that integrate different climate sciences, supporting robust climate strategies in a world of overshoot.