???ENUM_LANGUAGE_JA???
 
???mainMenu_lnkPrivacyPolicy??? ???mainMenu_lnkPolicy???
  1. ???ViewItemFullPage??? / 
  2. ???ViewItemOverviewPage???

???ViewItemPage???

???ViewItemFull_lblItemActions??????List_lblExportOptions???
 
 
???export_btDownload??????export_btEMail???
  ???ViewItemFull_lblSubHeaderLocalTags??????ViewItemFull_btnItemVersions??????ViewItemFull_btnItemView??????ViewItemOverview_lblLinkOverviewPage???

???ENUM_STATE_RELEASED???
???ENUM_GENRE_ARTICLE???

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)

???ViewItemOverview_lblSpecificAuthorsSection???

Van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
External Organizations;

O'Neill,  Brian C.
External Organizations;

Tebaldi,  Claudia
External Organizations;

Sanderson,  Benjamin M.
External Organizations;

Chini,  Louise P.
External Organizations;

Friedlingstein,  Pierre
External Organizations;

Hasegawa,  Tomoko
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Govindasamy,  Bala
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer,  Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Eyring,  Veronika
External Organizations;

Fall,  Cheikh M. N.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gidden,  Matthew J.
External Organizations;

Gohar,  Laila K.
External Organizations;

Högner,  Annika
External Organizations;

Jones,  Andrew D.
External Organizations;

Kikstra,  Jarmo
External Organizations;

King,  Andrew
External Organizations;

Knutti,  Reto
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Lawrence,  Peter
External Organizations;

Lennard,  Chris
External Organizations;

Lowe,  Jason
External Organizations;

Mathison,  Camilla
External Organizations;

Mehmood,  Shahbaz
External Organizations;

Nicholls,  Zebedee
External Organizations;

Prado,  Luciana F.
External Organizations;

Zhang,  Qiang
External Organizations;

Rose,  Steven K.
External Organizations;

Ruane,  Alex C.
External Organizations;

Sandstad,  Marit
External Organizations;

Schleussner,  Carl-Friedrich
External Organizations;

Seferian,  Roland
External Organizations;

Sillmann,  Jana
External Organizations;

Smith,  Chris
External Organizations;

Sörensson,  Anna A.
External Organizations;

Panickal,  Swapna
External Organizations;

Tachiiri,  Kaoru
External Organizations;

Vaughan,  Naomi
External Organizations;

Vishwanathan,  Saritha S.
External Organizations;

Yokohata,  Tokuta
External Organizations;

Zecchetto,  Marco
External Organizations;

Ziehn,  Tilo
External Organizations;

???ViewItemOverview_lblExternalResourceSection???

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14382495
(???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_code???)

???ViewItemOverview_lblRestrictedFulltextSection???
???ViewItemOverview_noRestrictedFullTextsAvailable???
???ViewItemOverview_lblFulltextSection???

gmd-19-2627-2026.pdf
(???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_publisher-version???), 6???ViewItemMedium_lblFileSizeMB???

???ViewItemOverview_lblSupplementaryMaterialSection???
???ViewItemOverview_noSupplementaryMaterialAvailable???
???ViewItemOverview_lblCitationSection???

Van Vuuren, D. P., O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L. F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S. K., Ruane, A. C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A. A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S. S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M., Ziehn, T. (2026): The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7). - Geoscientific Model Development, 19, 7, 2627-2656.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34250
???ViewItemOverview_lblAbstractSection???
Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations in this century. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the Earth system uncertainty space. The proposal also includes plans for long-term extensions (up to 2500 AD) to study long-term impacts, climate change-related processes on long timescales, and (ir)reversibility. This proposal forms the basis for further implementation of the framework in terms of the derivation of emissions and land use pathways for use by Earth system models and additional variants for adaptation and mitigation studies.