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2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal

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/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Rodrigues,  Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker,  Robert C.       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/joanna.sitarz

Sitarz,  Joanna       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/anne.merfort

Merfort,  Anne       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/robin.krekeler

Hasse,  Robin       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Johanna.Hoppe

Hoppe,  Johanna
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michaja.pehl

Pehl,  Michaja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/ershad

Ershad,  Ahmad Murtaza
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/jarusch.muessel

Müßel,  Jarusch       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Felix.Schreyer

Schreyer,  Felix       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark,  Lavinia       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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s41467-026-71159-8.pdf
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Zitation

Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R. C., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A. M., Müßel, J., Schreyer, F., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G. (2026): 2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal. - Nature Communications, 17, 3417.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71159-8


Zitierlink: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34282
Zusammenfassung
The European Green Deal aims to guide the European Union towards achieving
net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by implementing a comprehensive set of
policy initiatives and legislation. While emission reduction targets and policies
up to 2030 are mostly implemented, it is of high priority for EU legislation to
spell out the further transformation to climate neutrality by defining interim
policy targets for 2040. To provide information for this target-setting process,
we use an integrated energy-economy-climate model with high sector detail to
explore pathways to achieve climate neutrality in the EU under uncertainty
about key energy system developments. Results suggest that emission
reductions of 86% (sensitivity range: 80% to 93%) by 2040 relative to 1990 are
consistent with a cost-efficient distribution of mitigation efforts over time,
substantially exceeding the 78%-level implied by a linear interpolation between
the 2030 and 2050 targets. Additionally, we identify a 7-fold (sensitivity range:
4–8-fold) upscaling of electricity generation from wind and solar, a 49%
(sensitivity range: 45–59%) share of electricity in final energy supply and an
upscaling of carbon capture and storage (CCS) to 188 Mt CO2/yr (sensitivity
range: 56–257) as crucial transformation milestones for 2040.