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Journal Article

Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085

Authors
/persons/resource/Stefanie.Heinicke

Heinicke,  Stefanie       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Submitting Corresponding Author, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/karim.zantout

Zantout,  Karim       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kühl,  Hjalmar S.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Reyer

Reyer,  Christopher P. O.       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sandra.zimmermann

Zimmermann,  Sandra       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/maik.billing

Billing,  Maik       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Gosling,  Simon N.
External Organizations;

Grillakis,  Manolis
External Organizations;

Hantson,  Stijn
External Organizations;

Ito,  Akihiko
External Organizations;

Kou-Giesbrecht,  Sian
External Organizations;

Koutroulis,  Aristeidis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Benedikt.Mester

Mester,  Benedikt
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Müller Schmied,  Hannes
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg,  Sebastian       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Otta,  Kedar
External Organizations;

Pokhrel,  Yadu
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Katja.Frieler

Frieler,  Katja       
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Resource

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18861352
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s41559-026-03050-0.pdf
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Citation

Heinicke, S., Zantout, K., Kühl, H. S., Reyer, C. P. O., Zimmermann, S., Billing, M., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Hantson, S., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Koutroulis, A., Mester, B., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Otta, K., Pokhrel, Y., Frieler, K. (2026 online): Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085. - Nature Ecology & Evolution.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03050-0


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34355
Abstract
Understanding how species are exposed to different types of extreme events is an emerging priority to inform biodiversity conservation under climate change. Using climate impact projections and species range data, we predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires for 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions. By 2050, under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP3–7.0), on average 74% of the area within species’ current geographic ranges are projected to be exposed to heatwaves, 16% to wildfires, 8% to droughts and 3% to river floods. These trends include species-rich areas in the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia. By 2050, 22 ecoregions, primarily in mid-latitudes, are estimated to have at least 50% of their area exposed to two or more types of extreme events, increasing to 236 ecoregions by 2085 (SSP3–7.0). By 2085, 36% of the area within species’ ranges are projected to be exposed to multiple event types (SSP3–7.0). These findings highlight the need for further research into species’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, and for conservation strategies that address the impacts of multiple extreme events.