Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal

Tagomori, Isabela S.; Diuana, Fabio A.; Baptista, Luiz Bernardo; Bertram, Christoph; Dafnomilis, Ioannis; Drouet, Laurent; Fosse, Florian; Fragkiadakis, Dimitris; Fricko, Oliver; Hooijschuur, Elena; Iyer, Gokul; Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Ou, Yang; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Richters, Oliver; Rochedo, Pedro R. R.; Vrontisi, Zoi; Weitzel, Matthias; Zwerling, Matthew; van Ruijven, Bas; Schaeffer, Roberto; van Vuuren, Detlef

doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y

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Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal

Authors

Tagomori, Isabela S.
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Diuana, Fabio A.
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Baptista, Luiz Bernardo
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Bertram, Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Dafnomilis, Ioannis
External Organizations;

Drouet, Laurent
External Organizations;

Fosse, Florian
External Organizations;

Fragkiadakis, Dimitris
External Organizations;

Fricko, Oliver
External Organizations;

Hooijschuur, Elena
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Iyer, Gokul
External Organizations;

Kikstra, Jarmo S.
External Organizations;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer, Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Ou, Yang
External Organizations;

Reis, Lara Aleluia
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Oliver.Richters

Richters, Oliver
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Rochedo, Pedro R. R.
External Organizations;

Vrontisi, Zoi
External Organizations;

Weitzel, Matthias
External Organizations;

Zwerling, Matthew
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10009463
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Citation

Tagomori, I. S., Diuana, F. A., Baptista, L. B., Bertram, C., Dafnomilis, I., Drouet, L., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, D., Fricko, O., Hooijschuur, E., Iyer, G., Kikstra, J. S., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Ou, Y., Reis, L. A., Richters, O., Rochedo, P. R. R., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zwerling, M., van Ruijven, B., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D. (2026 online): Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal. - Nature Climate Change.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34358

Abstract

Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry.