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Abstract

Drained organic soils in agricultural use in the European Union (EU) contribute approximately 80% of Cropland and Grassland greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released to the atmosphere, which makes their restoration highly relevant for achieving climate change mitigation targets in the EU. However, the cost-effectiveness of different restoration measures and their synergies with economic incentives remain poorly understood. Here, we provide an EU-wide assessment of the economic potential of restoring drained organic soils used for agriculture through 2050 using the economic land-use model GLOBIOM-EU. We investigate the climate benefits of three restoration measures—full rewetting, rehabilitation, and full rewetting with paludiculture—and evaluate their cost-effectiveness by developing marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs). Our results indicate that under a GHG price of 100 EUR tCO2e−1, 38.2–44.4 MtCO2e yr−1 could be mitigated in 2050. Demand for paludiculture products would substantially improve the attractivity of full rewetting, enabling up to 2 Mha of drained organic soils to be restored even without additional climate policy incentives, delivering 17 MtCO2e yr−1 mitigation in 2050. In addition, meeting the 2050 targets of the EU Nature Restoration Regulation (NRR) alone could mitigate emissions by 20–26 MtCO2e yr−1, equivalent to 23%–29% of current emissions from drained agricultural organic soils in the EU. These findings demonstrate that restoring drained organic soils represents a substantial mitigation opportunity for the EU agricultural sector, with synergies for bioeconomy development and nature restoration. An integrated approach to policy design is needed to ensure efficiency in delivering multiple co-benefits.