An assessment of the alignment of the COP28 energy pledges with the Paris 
Agreement Goals

Giannousakis, Anastasis; Schaeffer, Roberto; Bella, Alice D.; Van Heerden, Rik; Tolios, Giannis; Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nicolas; Strefler, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Emmerling, Johannes; Daioglou, Vassilis; Ünlü, Gamze; van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Baptista, Luiz Bernardo; Tavoni, Massimo; Lefevre, Julien; Leblanc, Florian; Le Gallic, Thomas; Angelkorte, Gerd Brantes; Fricko, Oliver; Riahi, Keywan; de Boer, Harmen-Sytze; Fragkos, Panagiotis

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae84e8

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An assessment of the alignment of the COP28 energy pledges with the Paris Agreement Goals

Authors

Giannousakis, Anastasis
External Organizations;

Schaeffer, Roberto
External Organizations;

Bella, Alice D.
External Organizations;

Van Heerden, Rik
External Organizations;

Tolios, Giannis
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler, Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Nicolas.Bauer

Bauer, Nicolas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Jessica.Strefler

Strefler, Jessica
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Krey, Volker
External Organizations;

Emmerling, Johannes
External Organizations;

Daioglou, Vassilis
External Organizations;

Ünlü, Gamze
External Organizations;

van Ruijven, Bas
External Organizations;

van Vuuren, Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Baptista, Luiz Bernardo
External Organizations;

Tavoni, Massimo
External Organizations;

Lefevre, Julien
External Organizations;

Leblanc, Florian
External Organizations;

Le Gallic, Thomas
External Organizations;

Angelkorte, Gerd Brantes
External Organizations;

Fricko, Oliver
External Organizations;

Riahi, Keywan
External Organizations;

de Boer, Harmen-Sytze
External Organizations;

Fragkos, Panagiotis
External Organizations;

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Giannousakis_2026_Environ._Res._Lett._21_144024.pdf
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Citation

Giannousakis, A., Schaeffer, R., Bella, A. D., Van Heerden, R., Tolios, G., Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Strefler, J., Krey, V., Emmerling, J., Daioglou, V., Ünlü, G., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D. P., Baptista, L. B., Tavoni, M., Lefevre, J., Leblanc, F., Le Gallic, T., Angelkorte, G. B., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., de Boer, H.-S., Fragkos, P. (2026): An assessment of the alignment of the COP28 energy pledges with the Paris Agreement Goals. - Environmental Research Letters, 21, 14, 144024.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae84e8

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34666

Abstract

COP28 marked the first time that climate negotiations at the highest level, i.e. an official Conference of the Parties’ (COP) decision, indicated clear energy-related milestones for urgent climate action by adopting specific renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for 2030, and phasing down fossil fuels by 2050. These milestones are meant to serve as yardsticks to guide the path towards mitigating climate change and meeting the Paris Agreement (PA) goals. We assess the alignment of COP28 energy outcomes with the PA goals using several leading Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) featuring high technological, sectoral, and regional detail. This detailed assessment could inform country- and technology-specific target design, which is becoming increasingly important in a fragmented world and under growing uncertainty regarding the prioritization of climate protection in governmental agendas. We additionally use and quantify novel transformation narratives such as “electrification” versus “combustion”, which could help develop a new generation of demand-side COP mitigation targets.