Strategising steel sector capacities and employment in the Global South: the 
case of South Africa

Hanto, Jonathan; Sultani, Darius; McCall, Bryce; Oei, Pao-Yu

doi:10.1038/s44406-026-00020-0

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Strategising steel sector capacities and employment in the Global South: the case of South Africa

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Hanto, Jonathan
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/darius.sultani

Sultani, Darius
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

McCall, Bryce
External Organizations;

Oei, Pao-Yu
External Organizations;

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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16811216
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Hanto, J., Sultani, D., McCall, B., Oei, P.-Y. (2026): Strategising steel sector capacities and employment in the Global South: the case of South Africa. - npj Clean Energy, 2, 5.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44406-026-00020-0

Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_34686

Abstract

Steel producers in the Global South face increasing pressure from trade and required emissions cuts. Renewable-rich regions could become key suppliers of low-carbon steel, but this vision remains conceptual and risks perpetuating extractivist patterns. Using the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), we assess technological, spatial and employment implications of South Africa’s steel transition. We find that an early push for hydrogen-based capacities is beneficial – but needs to be embedded in a broader just transition framework.