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Abstract

The safety and stability of regional water resource systems (WRS) are increasingly challenged by climate change and human activities. Assessing the water resource system resilience (WRSR) and understanding its driving mechanisms are essential for informed and integrated water resource management. We propose a comprehensive framework for evaluating WRSR based on three key components: supply, demand, and support (encompassing societal, economic, institutional, and ecological factors). WRSR is defined as the overall capacity of social-ecological systems to absorb, adapt to, and transform in response to various disturbances, such as water scarcity, droughts, floods, and pollution. Using the inland river basins of Hexi in northwest China as a case study, we investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of WRSR and its influencing factors from 2011 to 2019. The results show an overall fluctuating upward trend in WRSR, with resilience decreasing from upstream to downstream and from west to east across the region. Institutional support and economic development emerged as the main factors shaping the spatial variation in WRSR. Rising temperatures were found to enhance WRSR in most regions. Limited economic development was identified as the primary barrier to improving WRSR in the Hexi region, followed by inadequate water supply capacity and low water use efficiency. These findings highlight the need to balance economic growth with environmental protection and sustainable water use. The proposed framework offers an effective approach for integrated WRSR assessment and provides practical guidance for improving water management strategies in the Hexi region and beyond.