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Abstract

The Mediterranean region covered in this Expert Analysis comprises the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea and its bordering countries, which belong to Europe, Asia and Africa. The current population is estimated between 480 and 520 million. The region comprises a variety of climate zones. This Analysis aims to synthesise past and present observed trends in human mobility and migration, as well as future projections in all the related drivers, including changes in climate, environment, ecosystems, conflicts and security. Due to its geographical continuity and diverse cultural, political, and economic settings, the Mediterranean region exhibits significant socioeconomic disparities between northern and southern countries. These inequalities increase the region's vulnerability to environmental challenges. All Mediterranean subregions have warmed substantially during the last century. Observed warming now exceeds 1.5°C since the pre-industrial era. The region is therefore warming significantly faster than what is being observed globally. Observed and projected precipitation trends are less robust than temperature trends. Interannual climate variability is considered the dominant driver of rainfall anomalies in the Mediterranean. The magnitude, direction and significance of trends vary between Mediterranean locations, except for consistent evidence of ongoing drying in the eastern parts of the Basin. Climate-related extreme events, particularly heat waves and droughts, are expected to intensify in a continuously warming Mediterranean region. Ongoing political instability and conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East are expected to continue to affect mobility patterns in the Mediterranean region. Despite increasing border controls, current migration flows are expected to increase in the coming decades.