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Abstract

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved explicitly, but represented by parameterizations. These typically rely on resolving approximated but computationally expensive column-based physics, not accounting for interactions between locations. They struggle to capture fine-scale precipitation processes and introduce systematic biases. We present a novel approach, based on generative machine learning, which combines a conditional diffusion model with a regression model to generate accurate, high-resolution () global daily precipitation fields from a small set of prognostic atmospheric variables. Unlike traditional parameterizations, our framework efficiently produces ensemble predictions, capturing uncertainties in precipitation, and does not require fine-tuning by hand. We train our model on the ERA5 reanalysis and present a method that allows us to apply it to unseen ESM data across different climate scenarios, enabling fast probabilistic generation of precipitation fields. By leveraging interactions between global prognostic variables, our approach provides an alternative parameterization approach that mitigates biases present in the ESM precipitation while maintaining consistency with its large-scale (annual) trends. This work demonstrates that complex precipitation patterns can be learned directly from large-scale atmospheric variables, offering a computationally efficient method to obtain high-resolution precipitation without the cost of running the dynamical model at such high resolution.