English
 
Privacy Policy Disclaimer
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT
Add to Basket
  Local TagsRelease HistoryDetailsSummary

Released
Journal Article

Coping with dating errors in causality estimation

Authors

Smirnov,  D. A.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Marwan

Marwan,  Norbert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Breitenbach,  S. F. M.
External Organizations;

Lechleitner,  F.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Juergen.Kurths

Kurths,  Jürgen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

External Ressource
No external resources are shared
Fulltext (public)
There are no public fulltexts stored in PIKpublic
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Smirnov, D. A., Marwan, N., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Lechleitner, F., Kurths, J. (2017): Coping with dating errors in causality estimation. - EPL (Europhysics Letters), 117, 1, 10004.
https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/117/10004


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_21630
Abstract
We consider the problem of estimating causal influences between observed processes from time series possibly corrupted by errors in the time variable (dating errors) which are typical in palaeoclimatology, planetary science and astrophysics. "Causality ratio" based on the Wiener-Granger causality is proposed and studied for a paradigmatic class of model systems to reveal conditions under which it correctly indicates directionality of unidirectional coupling. It is argued that in the case of a priori known directionality, the causality ratio allows a characterization of dating errors and observational noise. Finally, we apply the developed approach to palaeoclimatic data and quantify the influence of solar activity on tropical Atlantic climate dynamics over the last two millennia. A stronger solar influence in the first millennium A.D. is inferred. The results also suggest a dating error of about 20 years in the solar proxy time series over the same period.