???ENUM_LANGUAGE_JA???
 
???mainMenu_lnkPrivacyPolicy??? ???mainMenu_lnkPolicy???

???ViewItemPage???

???ViewItemFull_lblItemActions??????List_lblExportOptions???
???ViewItemFull_lblAddToBasket???
  ???ViewItemFull_lblSubHeaderLocalTags??????ViewItemFull_btnItemVersions??????ViewItemFull_btnItemView??????ViewItemOverview_lblLinkOverviewPage???

???ENUM_STATE_RELEASED???
???ENUM_GENRE_ARTICLE???

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

???ViewItemOverview_lblSpecificAuthorsSection???

Smith,  Steven J.
External Organizations;

Chateau,  Jean
External Organizations;

Dorheim,  Kalyn
External Organizations;

Drouet,  Laurent
External Organizations;

Durand-Lasserve,  Olivier
External Organizations;

Fricko,  Oliver
External Organizations;

Fujimori,  Shinichiro
External Organizations;

Hanaoka,  Tatsuya
External Organizations;

Harmsen,  Mathijs
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Keramidas,  Kimon
External Organizations;

Klimont,  Zbigniew
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Moura,  Maria Cecilia P.
External Organizations;

Riahi,  Keywan
External Organizations;

Rogelj,  Joeri
External Organizations;

Sano,  Fuminori
External Organizations;

van Vuuren,  Detlef P.
External Organizations;

Wada,  Kenichi
External Organizations;

???ViewItemOverview_lblExternalResourceSection???
???ViewItemOverview_noExternalResourcesAvailable???
???ViewItemOverview_lblRestrictedFulltextSection???
???ViewItemOverview_noRestrictedFullTextsAvailable???
???ViewItemOverview_lblFulltextSection???

24695oa.pdf
(???ENUM_CONTENTCATEGORY_publisher-version???), 2???ViewItemMedium_lblFileSizeMB???

???ViewItemOverview_lblSupplementaryMaterialSection???
???ViewItemOverview_noSupplementaryMaterialAvailable???
???ViewItemOverview_lblCitationSection???

Smith, S. J., Chateau, J., Dorheim, K., Drouet, L., Durand-Lasserve, O., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hanaoka, T., Harmsen, M., Hilaire, J., Keramidas, K., Klimont, Z., Luderer, G., Moura, M. C. P., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Sano, F., van Vuuren, D. P., Wada, K. (2020): Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis. - Climatic Change, 163, 3, 1427-1442.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3


???ViewItemOverview_lblCiteAs???: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24695
???ViewItemOverview_lblAbstractSection???
The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.