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How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways

Authors
/persons/resource/giannou

Giannousakis,  Anastasis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/hilaire

Hilaire,  Jérôme
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Nemet,  Gregory F.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Gunnar.Luderer

Luderer,  Gunnar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Robert.Pietzcker

Pietzcker,  Robert C.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/renato.rodrigues

Dias Bleasby Rodrigues,  Renato
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lavinia.baumstark

Baumstark,  Lavinia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Elmar.Kriegler

Kriegler,  Elmar
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Citation

Giannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Nemet, G. F., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, R., Baumstark, L., Kriegler, E. (2021): How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways. - Energy, 216, 119253.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119253


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_24779
Abstract
Limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” as stated in the Paris Agreement requires ambitious emissions reductions from all sectors. Rapid technology cost declines in the energy sector are changing energy investment and emissions, even with the weak climate policies currently in place. We assess how energy supply costs and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability affect mitigation by performing a sensitivity analysis with the energy-economy-climate model REMIND. We use new scenarios with carbon price paths that aim to reduce the frequently seen temperature overshoot. Further, we measure the sensitivities of mitigation indicators to the costs of technologies across economic sectors. We assess the sensitivity to nine techno-economic parameters: the costs of wind, solar, biomass, gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and electric/hydrogen vehicles, as well as the injection rate of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). While technology costs play a role in shaping optimal pathways, we find that transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization, whereas costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. This further highlights the value of renewable energy deployment as a no-regrets option in climate policy. In terms of the sensitivity of model outputs, economic indicators become more sensitive to costs than emissions, with increasing policy stringency.